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JP Morgan Market Outlook 2024

The market outlook for 2024 is clouded by economic uncertainty and slowing global growth. J.P. Morgan Research analyzes the prospects for equities, emerging markets, commodities, currencies and more in the post-COVID-19 world.

The main themes for 2024 are:

– Recovery: The global economy is expected to grow by 5.8% in 2024, with a strong rebound in the second half of the year as vaccines become widely available and mobility restrictions ease. However, the recovery will be incomplete and uneven, with a large output gap and divergent performance across regions and sectors.

– Reflation: Inflation pressures will rise in 2024, driven by higher commodity prices, supply bottlenecks, fiscal stimulus and pent-up demand. However, core inflation will remain moderate and below central bank targets in most countries, as labor market slack and structural factors limit wage growth and price transmission.

– Rotation: The market will rotate from growth to value, from defensive to cyclical, and from U.S. to non-U.S. assets, as the recovery broadens and reflation takes hold. However, the rotation will be gradual and selective, as growth and quality factors will still matter in a low-yield and uncertain environment.

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Key Calls for 2024:

– Equities: J.P. Morgan Research is overweight global equities, with a preference for non-U.S. and cyclical markets, such as Europe, Japan and emerging markets. The earnings recovery will be the main driver of equity returns, while valuations will remain elevated but supported by low interest rates and ample liquidity.

– Fixed Income: J.P. Morgan Research is underweight global fixed income, with a negative view on government bonds and a positive view on credit and emerging market debt. The steepening of the yield curve will reflect the improving growth outlook and rising inflation expectations, while credit spreads will tighten further as default risks subside and corporate fundamentals improve.

– Commodities: J.P. Morgan Research is bullish on commodities, with a constructive view on oil, metals and agriculture. The demand recovery will outpace the supply response, creating a favorable backdrop for commodity prices. Moreover, commodities will benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar, a supportive policy mix and a potential increase in inflation hedging demand.

– Currencies: J.P. Morgan Research is bearish on the U.S. dollar, with a preference for cyclical and commodity-linked currencies, such as the euro, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. The U.S. dollar will weaken as the global growth gap narrows, the U.S. twin deficits widen and the Fed remains dovish.

Source:

(1) Market Outlook 2024 | J.P. Morgan Research. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook.

(2) 2021 Global Market Outlook – J.P. Morgan. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/2021-global-market-outlook.

(3) Global Market Outlook 2020: Higher Growth Outside of U.S., Lower Returns. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/global-market-outlook-2020.

(4) Mid-year market outlook 2023 – J.P. Morgan. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/mid-year-outlook.

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